Is it a shadow or a cloud?
There is so much speculation about "shadow inventory" and "the double dip" in the real estate market today. A blog post this morning from Inman News inspired me to do a little checking.
The screenshot above is what a small portion of Scottsdale looks like to Realtors using the Imapp tax search. The green flags represent Active properties, the blue represent sold, the black X's are expired listings, the red flags are cancelled listings, the yellow are pending sales, and the little black gavels are properties with FORECLOSURE "notices".
Now don't be fooled that all of these properties will actually go to a foreclosure sale. Many of them are in the loan modification or short sale process. Although, very few loan modifications work or lead to a long term solution for most homeowners.
After a little research into the tax records of Maricopa County there were some very enlightening indicators into our "shadow market":
Bank of America is listed as the owner of:
- 441 properties
- 110 are Active at this time
Wells Fargo is listed as the owner of:
- 1,411 properties
- 356 are Active at this time
- 73 of these are in Scottsdale
- 23 Wells Fargo owned properties are on the market in Scottsdale
Freddie Mac is the owner of:
- 2,894 properties
- 1,046 are on the market
- 167 of these are in Scottsdale
- 64 Freddie Mac owned properties are on the market in Scottsdale
Fannie Mae blew the lid off the system as the owner of:
- 5000 properties
- 2,438 are on the market
- 342 of these are in Scottsdale
- 163 Fannie Mae properties are on the market in Scottsdale
These do not take into account the smaller banks that own property in Maricopa County, nor does is take into account all of the little black gavels in the picture above.
"Double dip" sounds like ice cream! Let's get real and bring in the heavy equipment! How do you spin the answer to all of these numbers? Is it time to buy or invest? Who can you trust? Where can you get a job? When will my credit recover? Can I ever qualify for a loan again?
You can spin these numbers into anything you want to call it, but the level of the issue varies greatly from town to town.
- Scottsdale has some of the best weather in the nation
- Scottsdale is loaded with golf courses
- Scottsdale is a 3 to 4 hour drive to the beaches of Mexico or the snow covered mountains.
- Scottsdale has some of the best real estate prices since 2003
- Scottsdale has areas that are actually increasing in value
- Interest Rates are at an all time low
- Home buyer assistance programs are beginning to surface in great numbers in Arizona
- FHA 203K and "reconstruction loans" are readily available.
When will the collapsed lung work again? If you keep waiting to buy, you won't know until everyone else does because the old data and analists won't report it until it is on it's way back up, and then interest rates will rise and you will be talking in the past tense when referring to our market.
The conversations with my clients today always starts with, "my house was worth" and they will be shifting to, " I can remember when you could buy that for".
Try to help someone today. If you are a Realtor do something for FREE! Share your stories. Do not be ashamed. We can become a nation of home "owners' again. Do not give up. Step over the hole and keep going. Most of all..... just listen and care!
If you would like regular foreclosure / market updates in Scottsdale send me your email address: LuettaAz@gmail.com
